PRESS RELEASE Monetary policy decisions 11 June 2026 The Governing Council is committed to setting monetary policy to ensure that inflation stabilises at its 2% target in the medium term.
In line with this commitment, it today decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points
The war in the Middle East is generating inflation pressures, and the decision to raise rates is robust across a range of scenarios mapping out how the shock might evolve and affect the medium-term outlook for the euro area. In the baseline of the new Eurosystem staff projections, headline inflation is expected to average 3.0% in 2026, 2.3% in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028. For inflation excluding energy and food, the baseline foresees an average of 2.5% in 2026 and 2027 and 2.2% in 2028.
Compared with March, staff have revised up their baseline projection for inflation in 2026 and 2027 owing to a higher path for energy prices, which, to some extent, is expected to feed into food, goods and services inflation. The baseline sees economic growth at an average of 0.8% in 2026, 1.2% in 2027 and 1.5% in 2028. This is a downward revision for 2026 and 2027, reflecting a more pronounced impact of the war on commodity markets, real incomes and confidence.