Copper Analyst: America Needs as Much Copper in the Next 18 Years as It Mined in the Last 10,000 Years Quick Read – Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) surged 54% over the past year and CPER gained 26%, as copper futures recently hit a record $6.60 per pound. – Dreyfus argues the US must…
ne 700 million tons of copper in 18 years, a figure that matches all of humanity’s output over the last 10,000 years. – Dan Dreyfus, founder of Borneite Capital, made a striking case for copper on a recent appearance on the All-In Podcast. By his calculations, simply keeping up with ordinary GDP growth would require the world to extract 700 million tons of copper over the next 18 years, which is roughly the same amount humanity has mined over the last 10,000 years
That comparison sits at the center of his structural bull case. The Demand Shock Dreyfus puts current copper consumption at 30 million tons per year, with electrification of the grid, EVs, and data centers driving demand higher. He emphasizes that the shortfall exists even before accounting for AI demand, and that the US grid faces shortfalls even from ordinary electrification.
Independent forecasters echo the directional call: an S&P Global study cited in Freeport McMoRan’s filings projects copper demand reaching 42 million metric tons by 2040, and a separate S&P analysis warns the market could face a deficit of more than 10 million metric tons by 2040. The Supply Shock The other blade of the scissors, leading to a massive copper shortfall, is supply. Dreyfus notes that only a handful of tier-1 copper mines are coming online before 2030 and that new mines take 7 to 12 years to build.