Nearly all surveyed economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise its policy rate to 1% next month amid yen pressure and economic risks.
A poll of 70 economists shows 94% expect the Bank of Japan to raise its policy rate to 1% at its June meeting, up from 65% previously. Nearly all respondents anticipate the rate will reach at least 1% by September.
Expectations for further hikes have also accelerated, with 79% forecasting a 1.25% rate in Q4 2026. Two-thirds now see the rate hitting 1.50% by Q2 next year, earlier than May’s projections.
Traders are pricing in an 87% chance of a June hike, reflecting growing conviction. The BOJ’s communication strategy and yen depreciation are key drivers, though economic and fiscal challenges may limit future moves.