Quick Read – OpenAI commands a 73% market probability of a 2026 IPO, backed by a confidential filing with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley and an $852 billion private valuation. – John Collison’s ‘not in any rush’ stance and a $159 billion private tender valuation keep Stripe’s…
ar-term IPO probability near zero. – Destiny Tech100 (DXYZ) offers the only public exposure to all three IPO candidates, up 36% year to date despite a 20% one-week drawdown. – Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and Destiny Tech100 didn’t make the cut. Grab the names FREE today
The 2026 initial public offering (IPO) calendar has narrowed down to a handful of marquee names that retail and institutional investors have been waiting on for years. While the SpaceX IPO grabs the headlines, three others also stand out: OpenAI, Stripe, and Consensys (the parent of MetaMask). All three are still private, with no listed shares, no analyst coverage, and no public price.
The only way to gauge how Wall Street is positioning is through prediction markets, the most recent private funding rounds, and disclosed IPO process steps. To rank them, we are using a simple framework: market-implied probability of an IPO by year-end, the latest verifiable private valuation, and the concreteness of the IPO process (confidential filings, banks hired, public leadership commentary). Higher conviction plus a clearer process equals a higher rank.