IATA forecasts global airline net profit to halve to $23 billion in 2026 due to surging jet fuel prices and regional disruptions.
Global airlines will see net profits plunge to $23 billion in 2026, down from $45 billion in 2025, as the Middle East conflict drives jet fuel prices to $152 per barrel. The industry’s net profit margin is expected to shrink to 2.0% from 4.2% last year, with per-passenger earnings falling to $4.50 from $9.10.
Fuel costs are projected to rise nearly 70%, pushing the industry’s annual fuel bill to $350 billion from $252 billion in 2025. Fuel’s share of operating costs will climb to 31.4% from 25.4%, pressuring margins despite a 9.4% revenue increase to $1.165 trillion.
Demand remains resilient, but higher fares and ancillary income will not offset the cost surge. The revised outlook reflects war-related disruptions and elevated fuel expenses, according to industry forecasts.