Historical data shows over 90% of IPOs trade below their first-day low, signaling caution for AI-linked debuts like SPCX and ANTHRO.
Investors eyeing AI-related IPOs such as SpaceX (SPCX), Anthropic (ANTHRO), and OpenAI (OPENAI) face significant downside risks, with over 90% of recent debuts trading below their first-day low. The trend underscores the volatility of early IPO trading and the potential for losses when buying at initial prices.
Analysts recommend waiting for an “IPO base”—a consolidation phase where shares stabilize after initial volatility—to gauge institutional interest. Key indicators include shares holding above the IPO price, weekly closes near the range’s top, and declining volume during pullbacks. This approach aims to provide a more disciplined entry point for high-profile AI offerings.
The caution follows Wall Street’s enthusiasm for AI-linked listings, which has driven demand but also raised concerns about overvaluation. Historical patterns suggest patience may yield better risk-adjusted returns than chasing early hype.