Economists now expect the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas to raise rates by 75bps total in June and August amid persistent inflation risks.
Standard Chartered economists have removed a 50bps off-cycle rate hike from their forecast for the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas ahead of its 18 June meeting. They still anticipate a 50bps increase in June and a 25bps hike in August due to lingering inflation risks and PHP depreciation concerns.
The revision follows a moderation in inflation risks but reflects ongoing pressures from imported inflation. The end-2026 policy rate forecast has been lowered to 5.25% from 5.75%, with easing expected to begin in Q2-2027.
PHP weakness remains a key factor, reinforcing the BSP’s hawkish stance. The central bank is projected to reverse hikes starting mid-2027, targeting a 4.50% rate by year-end.