Airbnb Inc (NASDAQ:ABNB, XETRA:6Z1) is on track to sustain double-digit revenue growth through the end of the decade as its expansion into hotels, travel experiences, and higher take rates adds meaningful incremental revenue, Jefferies said, reiterating a Buy rating on the stock.
Analysts at Jefferies project that each of the three growth drivers — hotels, experiences, and take rate expansion — could contribute roughly one percentage point to annual revenue growth between 2025 and 2030, underpinning estimates that now sit above Wall Street consensus
Airbnb integrated independent hotels into its core platform last year, initially launching in three markets before expanding to approximately 20. Jefferies views hotels as a way for Airbnb to address use cases historically unsuitable for home rentals, including one-night stays, business travel, and last-minute bookings, while also filling supply gaps in markets prone to seasonal demand spikes. The firm estimates Airbnb’s share of online bookings for independent hotels will grow from roughly 1% today to 3.5% by 2030, adding approximately $1 billion to 2030 revenue.
On the experiences side, Jefferies argues Airbnb is well positioned to capture a larger slice of the global travel experiences market given the pre-arrival interaction between guests and hosts, which the firm sees as a natural cross-sell opportunity. Of the roughly $280 billion spent globally on experiences, only about $80 billion is currently booked online, compared to a 65% online penetration rate for lodging. Jefferies expects online experiences bookings to reach approximately $150 billion by 2030 and sees Airbnb’s share rising from 1.5% to 3% over that period, contributing $800 million to 2030 revenue.