A stronger-than-expected May payrolls print could push markets closer to pricing a 2024 Fed rate hike, supporting USD momentum.
The US dollar’s bullish trend may gain fresh support from today’s May jobs report, with payrolls expected to exceed consensus estimates. ING forecasts 100k new jobs versus the 88k consensus, alongside unchanged unemployment at 4.3%, reinforcing hawkish Fed expectations.
Recent macroeconomic strength and shifting rate expectations have already bolstered the dollar, though limited oil price volatility amid stalled US-Iran talks has capped further gains. Brent’s failure to revisit $100 per barrel suggests markets are pricing in optimism over a potential deal, tempering broader USD upside.
A solid payrolls report could serve as the catalyst for markets to fully price a Fed rate hike this year, extending the dollar’s recent momentum.