Markets expect May employment to rise by 10K jobs after April’s 17.7K decline, keeping the unemployment rate unchanged.
Statistics Canada will release May’s Labour Force Survey on Friday, with economists forecasting the unemployment rate to hold at 6.9%. The net change in employment is projected to rebound by 10K jobs, offsetting April’s 17.7K drop.
April’s report showed average hourly wages rising 4.8% year-over-year, up from 4.7% in March, signaling persistent wage inflation. The Bank of Canada has maintained a data-dependent stance, with markets pricing in 34 basis points of tightening by year-end.
The BoC is expected to keep rates unchanged at its June 10 meeting, following four consecutive holds. Governor Tiff Macklem has emphasized caution, leaving room for further hikes if energy prices remain elevated.