UOB forecasts China’s second-quarter GDP growth at 4.7%, down from 5.0% in 1Q26, citing soft manufacturing and modest services rebound.
China’s GDP growth is expected to slow to 4.7% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, down from 5.0% in the first quarter, as manufacturing activity weakens and services recover only modestly. The outlook reflects softer external demand and cost pressures tied to Middle East disruptions.
May PMI data showed manufacturing hovering at the expansion threshold, while services growth provided limited offset. Domestic demand remains a key vulnerability, though policy responses are expected to remain calibrated unless growth dips below the official 4.5%-5.0% target range.
UOB maintains its full-year 2026 GDP growth forecast at 4.7%, aligning with the projected second-quarter slowdown. The economist noted that broader macro indicators from April already signaled the deceleration.