SpaceX (SPAX.PVT) just got slapped with a bearish valuation ahead of its monster IPO coming up later this month.
The report signals that one of the most anticipated offerings in years may be significantly overpriced, just as CEO Elon Musk tries to justify the valuation
Morningstar initiated coverage of SpaceX with a fair-value estimate of just $780 billion, less than half the roughly $1.8 trillion valuation the company is targeting in its initial public offering. Analyst Nicolas Owens’s discounted cash flow model valued SpaceX’s core launch and Starlink satellite businesses at about $611 billion in enterprise value, plus an additional $170 billion in “probability-weighted scenarios” for the company’s AI operations. Translation: Don’t buy at the IPO price. “We think the company has been significantly overvalued and investors will have opportunities to buy the stock at more attractive levels after the IPO,” Owens said.
Morningstar’s valuation rests on the strength of the company’s launch and connectivity businesses. SpaceX launched 83% of the mass sent to orbit from Earth in 2025 and reduced launch cost per by more than 95%, Owens noted. Starlink, described as the company’s main near-term cash engine, reported 50% revenue growth to $11.3 billion in 2025 and operating income exceeding $4.4 billion.