On a recent Rich Habits Podcast segment, market commentator Ron Santella put it bluntly: “The playbook from last week hasn’t changed.
It’s actually gotten more entrenched
Higher for longer is the base case.” For households waiting on a refinance or a first home purchase, he was even more direct: “Today’s report tells you it’s not going to happen anytime soon or this summer. The earliest realistic window for meaningful rate relief is still late 2026 at the earliest.” If you have been holding off on a home purchase or sitting on a refinance application waiting for the Fed to cut rates, that timeline matters. The cost of being wrong is measured in months of payments you did not need to make at this rate.
Quick Read – Nike (NKE) posted Q4 gross margin compression of 130 basis points to 40.2% citing tariff-driven cost increases in North America, while Lululemon (LULU) absorbed an estimated $210M operating income hit from tariffs and de minimis exemption removal. Costco (COST) posted strong results with worldwide renewal rates near 89.7% and shares up 10% year to date, and Visa (V) reported resilient consumer spending with payments volume up 8% constant-dollar. – Headline PCE inflation at 3.8% year over year in April 2026, driven largely by an energy shock, prevents the Fed from cutting rates before late 2026 at the earliest, leaving mortgage rates frozen near 6.5% and forcing homebuyers to underwrite purchases at current rates rather than waiting for relief. – Santella is right, and the math is unfriendly Headline PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, hit 3.8% year over year in April 2026, with core PCE at 3.3%. Both are the highest readings in the BEA’s 36-month window.