Societe Generale forecasts Poland’s central bank will maintain its policy rate amid on-target inflation and improved growth.
The National Bank of Poland is anticipated to keep its benchmark rate steady at 3.75% through early 2027, as inflation remains within the 1.5%-3.5% target range. Headline CPI stood at 3.1% year-over-year in May, with core inflation at 3.0%, while first-quarter GDP grew 0.6% quarter-over-quarter and 3.5% year-over-year.
Despite stable policy expectations, money markets are pricing in approximately 75 basis points of tightening over the next year, contrasting with 71 basis points of easing priced for Hungary. The divergence reflects differing economic outlooks and potential performance in local bonds and currencies like the zloty and forint.
Finance Minister Andrzej Domański highlighted the resilience of Poland’s economy, citing improved growth and favorable inflation data as key factors supporting the central bank’s stance.