Three months into the Iran War, vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is still running more than 90% below normal levels.
Base chemicals have risen faster than at any point on record
Asian petrochemical plants are declaring force majeure. And Goldman Sachs just published its most detailed assessment yet of what a prolonged supply disruption actually means for the global economy. The headline finding will surprise investors who have been bracing for the worst.
What Goldman Sachs said about oil, supply chains, and global growth Goldman Sachs economist Megan Peters published a note on May 29 modeling what would happen to the global economy if Middle Eastern commodity supplies were lost indefinitely. The paper uses Exiobase input-output tables covering 200 products across 163 industries in 44 countries to trace how supply losses in the Persian Gulf ripple through global production chains. The Gulf’s commodity exports span crude oil, refined fuels, fertilizers, petrochemicals, sulfur, methanol, helium, steel, and aluminum.