Traders on Kalshi now price Rubio at 30% odds for the 2028 Republican nomination, narrowing Vance’s lead to 33%.
Prediction market traders have sharply reduced Vice President JD Vance’s odds of securing the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, with his probability slipping to 33% on Kalshi from 50% in early January. Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, has surged to 30% from 12% over the same period, closing the gap as doubts about Vance’s standing within the party grow.
Vance was initially viewed as the heir to Donald Trump’s political movement, bolstered by his high-profile role in the administration. However, reports indicate Trump has questioned Vance’s candidacy, citing past opposition to military actions in Iran. Rubio’s rising odds coincide with his increased visibility during recent geopolitical events, including military operations in Venezuela and Iran.
The shift in prediction markets reflects broader uncertainty about the GOP’s 2028 prospects, as Trump’s approval ratings decline amid ongoing conflicts. Rubio’s viral White House speech in May further fueled speculation about his political ambitions.