Quick Read – USO’s structural advantage depends on backwardated WTI futures curve that generates roll yield, but this tailwind reverses if the strait reopens. – Watch Kpler tanker data and the CME WTI futures strip: climbing Hormuz traffic or a flattening curve signals the…
opolitical premium is unwinding. – The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 stocks and United States Oil Fund wasn’t one of them. Get them here FREE
The United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA:USO) has been the most consequential commodity trade of 2026, and the next 12 months will decide whether that trade survives or unwinds. USO trades near $131 on May 27, up roughly 98% year to date and more than double its level a year ago, driven almost entirely by the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz that began on February 28. USO holders are betting on whether that strait reopens, and how fast.
USO is a single-commodity fund that holds near-month WTI crude futures and rolls them forward each month. It owns paper barrels only, with no exposure to producers, refiners, or pipelines. That mechanical purity is why USO tracked WTI almost tick for tick on the way up: NAV rose 83% in Q1 2026 against a 77% rise in the benchmark, and Q1 net income hit $983.7 million versus $40.3 million a year earlier.