Banxico lowers its 2026 GDP projection by 50 basis points, citing weaker-than-expected first-quarter economic activity.
The Bank of Mexico reduced its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.1% from 1.6%, attributing the revision to a considerably weaker first-quarter performance. The central bank warned that investment may remain subdued through at least the first half of the year.
The prior forecast, released in late 2025, had projected 1.6% growth for 2026. Analysts had expected a modest downgrade, but the 50-basis-point cut exceeded consensus estimates. The report also flagged rising inflation risks, complicating the outlook for monetary policy.
Markets are assessing the implications for interest rate decisions, with traders pricing in a more cautious stance from Banxico in the coming months.