CBA and Westpac project differing April inflation prints, highlighting uncertainty over cost pressures from geopolitical tensions.
Australia’s April consumer price index forecasts show a split between major banks, with CBA predicting a 4.3% annual rise and Westpac expecting 4.8%. Both cite persistent underlying inflation despite fuel excise relief easing transport costs.
CBA attributes the lower forecast to declining fuel prices, while Westpac points to holiday travel and clothing costs as upward drivers. Trimmed mean inflation is projected at 3.4% by CBA and 3.5% by Westpac, with services inflation estimated at 3.8%.
The data will test whether inflationary pressures from the Iran conflict extend beyond energy, a critical factor for the Reserve Bank’s policy outlook. CBA also flags uncertainty around Q2 2026 trimmed mean inflation, forecasting a 1.0% quarterly rise.