Goldman Sachs raises its gold demand model estimates after identifying unrecorded sovereign purchases, maintaining a $5,400 year-end target.
Goldman Sachs has upheld its bullish gold outlook, keeping its year-end price forecast at $5,400 per troy ounce. The revision follows an update to its central bank demand model, which now accounts for previously unrecorded sovereign gold flows, pushing monthly purchase estimates higher.
The bank’s updated methodology shows a 12-month moving average of 50 tonnes per month as of March, up from 29 tonnes under the prior model. January’s central bank purchases were revised to 66 tonnes, a significant increase from the earlier 12-tonne estimate. The adjustment addresses discrepancies between London vault outflows and U.K. trade data, suggesting some transactions evade official records.
Goldman expects central bank buying to average 60 tonnes per month through 2026, reinforcing its positive stance on gold amid sustained institutional demand.