A leading energy consultant forecasts a potential oil price surge next month due to prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruptions.
Oil markets may face a sharp price spike in July if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for four months, according to a top energy analyst. Such a scenario could trigger a global recession, overshadowing current optimism around potential U.S.-Iran negotiations.
Traders have largely dismissed worst-case scenarios, focusing instead on positive rhetoric from U.S. officials. However, the risk of prolonged supply disruptions has not been priced into markets, leaving equities and oil vulnerable to sudden shifts.
The warning contrasts with recent market sentiment, where any positive news has been met with relief rallies. Analysts caution that geopolitical tensions could quickly reverse this trend.