China’s April copper output dropped 4.5% month-on-month, while Chile and Indonesia face production delays, limiting supply growth.
Copper prices have declined roughly 5% from mid-May highs, driven by heightened risk aversion linked to rising oil prices. However, tightening supply conditions are providing support, offsetting some losses.
China’s copper production in April fell 4.5% from March and rose just 3% year-on-year. Meanwhile, Chile’s state copper commission, Cochilco, lowered its 2026 production forecast by 2% to 5.3 million tons due to low ore grades and operational challenges. For 2027, a modest 4% recovery to 5.5 million tons is expected. Indonesia’s Grasberg mine, the world’s second-largest, is also facing delays, with full capacity not anticipated until late 2027.
The combination of weaker-than-expected output and slower ramp-ups in key mining regions is underpinning prices despite broader market volatility.