Probability of a Fed rate hike surged to 60% before dropping below 50%, driving intraday volatility in USD and Treasury yields.
The dollar saw a 0.4% intraday swing after the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike jumped to 60%, only to retreat below 50% later in the session. The shift reflected market reassessment of monetary policy expectations amid economic data releases.
Earlier in the day, Treasury yields declined, while US stock indices showed mixed movements. The volatility followed recent trends where Fed policy bets have driven sharp currency and bond market reactions.
By market close, the dollar’s movement stabilized, but the episode underscored sensitivity to Fed signaling and economic indicators.