Non-inundated plots within 100 meters of flood zones also saw a 5% decline, while effects vanished beyond 800 meters.
Land prices in areas flooded by Typhoon Hagibis in 2019 dropped 10% over five years, reflecting heightened flood-risk perception, according to a study using parcel-level data and inundation maps.
Non-inundated plots within 100 meters of flood boundaries declined by 5%, while price effects dissipated beyond 800 meters. Larger spillover effects were observed outside official hazard zones, where pre-flood risk assessments had less influence.
The study applied a Bayesian belief-updating framework to model delayed risk perception adjustments, proximity effects, and hazard-zone designations as key drivers of price changes.