April data expected to show Japan’s core CPI falling further below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for a third straight month.
Japan’s core consumer price index is projected to ease to 1.7% year-on-year in April, down from 1.8% in March, marking a third consecutive month below the Bank of Japan’s 2% inflation target. The decline reflects government energy subsidies and moderating food price pressures, offsetting higher energy costs in the headline measure.
The core-core CPI, excluding fresh food and energy, is forecast to edge down to 2.2% from 2.4% in March. Tokyo’s April CPI, a leading indicator, already fell below 2% across all key measures due to energy price declines and reduced childcare fees.
The data complicates the BOJ’s policy normalization efforts, as sustained inflation below target may delay further adjustments. Markets will watch Friday’s release for signs of persistent price trends.