Traders now assign OpenAI an 83% chance of going public first after reports of a confidential IPO filing.
OpenAI is poised to confidentially file for an IPO as soon as Friday, shifting market expectations sharply in its favor. Prediction market traders on Kalshi now give OpenAI an 83% probability of debuting before rival Anthropic, up from just over 32% prior to the report.
Before the filing news, Anthropic held a 69% chance of beating OpenAI to market on Polymarket, a figure that collapsed to 20%. OpenAI’s ChatGPT launch in November 2022 sparked the AI bull market, but investor sentiment has since cooled amid spending concerns, missed revenue targets, and leadership disputes.
Anthropic, meanwhile, has seen rapid enterprise growth and is reportedly seeking new funding, though its IPO timeline remains unclear. The race to public markets is seen as critical for setting valuations and securing investor attention in the competitive AI sector.