A logarithmic price model projects BTC could reach $255,000 by December, citing historical support and cycle trends.
A long-term Bitcoin valuation model suggests the cryptocurrency could surge to $255,000 by year-end, recovering from a 40% drop since its October 2025 peak. The Bitcoin Decay Channel, which tracks BTC’s uptrend with adjusted cycle gains, sets a conservative range of $90,000–$255,000 for 2026, extending to $128,000–$308,000 by 2027.
Historically, Bitcoin’s major tops in 2013, 2017, and 2021 aligned with the model’s upper bands, while bear-market lows found support near its lower zone. The latest rebound in March-April began near the model’s lower support, reinforcing the bullish outlook, according to the analysis.
Analysts note bearish HODL Waves could push BTC’s bottom to $65,900–$70,500, but the Decay Channel’s projections remain intact. The model’s logarithmic approach accounts for diminishing returns in each cycle while maintaining long-term growth.