Citi warns oil markets underestimate supply risks, forecasting near-term Brent at $120 with a bull case of $150 if Hormuz reopens slowly.
Citi forecasts Brent crude prices will climb to $120 per barrel in the near term, citing underpriced risks of prolonged supply disruptions. The bank’s bull-case scenario sees prices reaching $150 if the Strait of Hormuz reopens only gradually in Q3 2026.
The bank’s 2027 central case projects Brent between $80 and $90, assuming Iran restores control of Hormuz flows and balances exports with demand growth. Citi expects 2026 oil demand to contract by 0.6 million barrels per day, though inventory drawdowns may mask underlying consumption trends.
Citi estimates global oil inventories will draw by 1 billion barrels in 2026, highlighting the supply gap from the Hormuz disruption. A sharp price correction is anticipated once supply normalizes.