March ILO unemployment climbed above forecasts while employment growth slowed and wage growth accelerated, signaling mixed labor market signals.
The UK’s ILO unemployment rate increased to 5.0% in March, exceeding the 4.9% forecast and matching the prior month’s revised figure. Employment change reached 148k, below the 104k estimate but sharply higher than the prior 25k gain.
Average weekly earnings rose 4.1% in the three months to March, outpacing the 3.8% consensus and the prior 3.9% revision. Excluding bonuses, earnings grew 3.4%, in line with expectations but down from 3.6% previously. April payrolls fell by 100k, a steeper decline than the prior 28k drop.
The data reflects cooling job growth alongside persistent wage pressures, complicating the Bank of England’s policy outlook.