CAT shares surge on record backlog and AI-driven data center capex, but $1,000 target hinges on tariff costs and buybacks.
Caterpillar reported a $63 billion backlog, up 79% year-over-year, fueled by accelerated data center capital expenditures. The company beat EPS estimates in nine of the last 12 quarters, with Q1 2026 EPS projected at $5.47, and returned $5.7 billion to shareholders via buybacks in Q1 alone.
The industrial giant’s stock has rallied 151.61% over the past year and 48.24% year-to-date, driven by its role as a key supplier for AI data center infrastructure. CEO Joe Creed noted increased capital spending expectations from major data center customers, translating to higher order rates.
Reaching $1,000 by 2027 requires tariff costs to stay at the low end of the $2.2-2.4 billion guidance range and sustained buyback activity. Shares recently pulled back 4.28% after hitting a 52-week high of $931.35.