Deutsche Bank forecasts UK jobless rate to hold at 4.9% with redundancies between 110k and 155k due to soft hiring intentions.
The United Kingdom’s unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.9%, unchanged despite a recent drop driven by a rise in self-employment. Elevated redundancies, softer hiring plans, and weak employment intentions signal persistent labor market weakness.
Redundancies are projected to stay high, with gross figures tracking between 110k and 155k. Survey data shows employment intentions have declined further, partly due to the Iran conflict’s impact on energy markets and corporate pay adjustments.
Vacancies are expected to see only a marginal decline, reinforcing a sluggish jobs outlook. The labor market’s weakness is attributed to stalled hiring and ongoing adjustments in wage growth.