A Swiss trader warns of a 2 million ton supply gap and critically low inventories by year-end, despite China’s elevated production.
Aluminium markets may face a 2 million ton supply deficit in 2026, according to a major Swiss commodities trader. The warning follows disrupted Gulf supply and robust demand, particularly from China’s resilient industrial sector, which has offset some but not all shortfalls.
China’s aluminium production has exceeded government-mandated caps in recent months, driven by high prices and ample alumina supplies. Exports rose in April, yet Gulf supply disruptions limit downward pressure on prices. Inventory levels remain a growing concern, with projections of “paper-thin” stocks by year-end.
The deficit risk underscores potential supply bottlenecks and heightened price volatility. Demand remains strong, particularly in China, where industrial activity continues to support consumption despite broader economic uncertainties.