ING analysts highlight CNB governor remarks reinforcing a cautious tone, capping koruna gains despite market expectations of three hikes.
The Czech koruna remains constrained against the euro, trading in a tight 24.300–24.400 range, as the Czech National Bank adopts a dovish tone. Recent comments from the CNB governor, including discussions on fiscal policy and inflation risks, reinforce expectations of a prolonged pause in rate hikes.
Markets still price in approximately three rate increases over the next 12 months, aligning with expectations for Poland’s central bank. However, weaker global sentiment and the CNB’s cautious rhetoric are expected to push EUR/CZK toward the upper end of its recent range.
Analysts maintain a baseline forecast of no immediate rate changes, citing lower inflationary pressures ahead due to base effects. The koruna’s stability reflects a balance between global risks and the CNB’s measured approach.