Although the optics from Beijing this week look like a thaw, Wall Street has watched this exact movie before.
President Trump arrived in Beijing on May 13, 2026 for a state-banquet summit with President Xi Jinping, accompanied by a phalanx of U.S
CEOs and a softer trade tone. Polymarket is pricing a 71.5% probability of AI export-control relief for China by May 22, 74.5% on a new U.S.-China Board of Trade, and 46.5% on a tariff reduction. The mood music is bullish.
But the real question for anyone holding U.S. Big Tech is what tends to happen after the cameras leave. I have been investing through these “opening up” cycles for more than a decade now, and really it’s just the same thing over and over.