A Reuters poll shows economists split on BoE moves, with most expecting rates to remain restrictive amid persistent inflation pressures.
The Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates at 3.75% through 2024, according to a Reuters poll of 56 economists. The survey reveals divided expectations, with 27 economists forecasting no change, 22 predicting at least one hike, and 7 anticipating a cut. The split underscores uncertainty over UK inflation, which remains above the BoE’s 2% target despite gradual disinflation progress.
UK inflation is projected to average 3.2% in 2026, unchanged from April’s survey, while GDP growth forecasts improved slightly to 0.8% for 2024. The outlook suggests the BoE may maintain restrictive policy longer to curb inflation, even as economic activity stabilizes. Markets showed little reaction, with GBP/USD trading near 1.3515, down 0.17% on the day.