The International Energy Agency projects a 3.9 million barrel per day decline in world oil supply by 2026 due to geopolitical risks.
Global oil supply is expected to decrease by 3.9 million barrels per day in 2026, according to a revised forecast. The decline reflects assumptions that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for nearly 20% of global energy supply, will gradually resume from June.
The previous forecast had anticipated a smaller reduction of 1.5 million barrels per day. The updated projection underscores heightened concerns over supply disruptions in key oil transit routes amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Markets may react to the sharper-than-expected supply contraction, potentially influencing crude pricing and energy sector investments.