U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts extended disruption in key oil transit route, lowering 2026 price outlook for WTI and Brent.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects the Strait of Hormuz to remain closed through late May, disrupting 10.5 million barrels per day of crude oil output from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain in April. Traffic is projected to resume gradually in June, with pre-conflict levels restored by late 2026.
EIA revised its 2026 WTI price forecast to $85.68 per barrel from $87.41, while Brent is now expected to average $94.85, down from $96. The agency also raised its 2026 U.S. oil output forecast to 13.65 million bpd from 13.51 million bpd, with 2027 output seen at 14.1 million bpd.
Natural gas production in the U.S. for 2026 is forecast at 110.6 billion cubic feet per day, up from a prior estimate of 109.6 bcf/d, while 2027 demand is projected at 115 bcf/d.