Commerzbank warns US sanctions on Chinese refineries buying Iranian oil may push firms to bypass USD settlement systems.
Legal tensions between US sanctions and China’s blocking statutes are creating risks for the USD’s reserve currency status. Companies may avoid US payment systems to evade sanctions, reducing reliance on USD settlements over time.
While trade involving the five targeted Chinese refineries remains modest, the conflict adds incremental pressure on the USD’s global dominance. Previous warnings have highlighted similar risks, but geopolitical strains are now amplifying concerns.
The situation underscores broader challenges to the USD’s role in international trade, though a sudden shift remains unlikely. Markets are monitoring developments as US-China relations evolve.