The USD is trading lower today as oil slips back below $100 and Treasury yields edge down.
The USD is trading lower today as oil slips back below $100 and Treasury yields edge down. The 10-year yield is off -2.2 bps at 4.367%, while the 2-year is also down -2.2 bps at 3.865%.
On the data front, ISM Manufacturing PMI came in weaker than expected but held above the 50 level—keeping the sector in expansion. The report had a mixed tone: employment declined, while new orders and prices moved higher, pointing to ongoing demand alongside persistent cost pressures. In the video above, I walk through the major currency pairs versus the USD—breaking down the technicals that define the bias, risk, and targets.
EURUSD The EURUSD pushed to new highs and is now targeting the April 21–22 highs near 1.1790. Above 1.1790 → opens the door toward the next swing area at 1.1823–1.1836 The pair has already broken and extended away from this week’s high at 1.17544, signaling strong upside momentum Bias: Bullish above 1.1754 USDJPY USDJPY remains range-bound, with key levels clearly defining the battlefield: Resistance: 100-day MA at 157.26 Support: 61.8% retracement at 155.50 Pivot: 50% midpoint at 156.50 Price is rotating above and below that midpoint—acting as the rudder: Above 156.50 → more bullish tilt Below 156.50 → sellers gain control Bias: Neutral within the range, awaiting a break GBPUSD GBPUSD has broken higher after holding support in a key April swing area: Support: 1.3575–1.3598 (now risk-defining zone) High today: 1.3658 (highest since mid-February) Upside targets: 1.3725–1.3772 (next major swing area) Year high: 1.3869 Bias: Bullish above 1.3575 USDCHF USDCHF continues to push lower and is approaching key support: April low: 0.7773 61.8% retracement: 0.7770 This is a critical decision zone: A break below would increase bearish momentum On the first test, expect dip buyers to lean with tight risk Bias: Bearish, but support is being tested NZDUSD NZDUSD has rebounded sharply after making lower lows over the past three weeks: The earlier break below the 4H…